The old adage “Red sky at night is a sailor’s delight, red sky in the morning is a sailor’s warning” describes how an evening sun in the west often illuminates the clouds of a departing storm system to signal coming good weather. While a rising sun in the east reddens morning clouds to warn that a storm system is inbound. The proverb suggests there is much to be learned from paying close attention to signs and signals in the natural world. In this case the color of the evening and morning skies as they correspond to the following day’s weather. For the ancients this sage advice was not only highly practical but also very wise. The functional impact of weather upon old world human activity, from travel to agriculture could literally mean the difference between life and death. And so it would be much better for the proverbial sailor to simply stay in bed rather than set out against an angry morning sky.
The age-old practice of watching and studying the weather predates recorded history. The aforementioned signs and signals that are derived from weather patterns have long been understood. By observing patterns we are able to predict what is likely to happen next. Patterns beget patterns, which means we can predict with some certainty that one pattern will follow another. For example Spring following Winter produces buds on the trees which in turn become leaves and blooming flowers etc.
Observing patterns can be helpful in understanding the relationship between past and present events, and may therefore be useful in predicting what will happen in the future. If a bear has a history of rummaging through your trash late at night, there is good reason to believe it will continue doing so in the future, unless of course something in that pattern changes ie. You stop leaving your trash outside.
Having an understanding of patterns affords a deeper insight into how things work, and fit together. For instance, patterns can be helpful in identifying the root causes in a broken system. Instead of being confused and distracted by focusing on the superficial symptoms, we can see the sequence and even inner workings of a breakdown by studying its pattern and making repairs accordingly.
By just being attentive we can all benefit from these kinds of lessons that are available to everyone. Then again, if we fail to recognize patterns or to take advantage of what we can learn from even our own mistakes, we may actually end up participating in another pattern, a negative one of our own making and perhaps without even realizing. Patterns are inescapable.
The idea that there is something to be gained from observing the patterns found within the natural order indicates a belief in and commitment to a knowable truth. Neither time nor space allow me to adequately begin describing the importance of this belief, as it has historically fueled the pursuit of all knowledge up to and including the modern scientific era. Every effort to learn about and better understand our world is predicated upon the assumption that there are such things as incontrovertible facts (truths). Human achievements in science and research are built upon this presupposition.
The belief that truth is knowable, obviously predates the modern era going well beyond the empirical and permeating every aspect of human society. Our ability to live peacefully and in a manner that is productive and meaningful depends upon an acceptance of axiomatic truth claims. Foremost amongst these are the sacredness of human life, the rule of law, and a respect for private property. Although the origin of these ideas lies somewhere in the distant past, we recognize them as belonging to the Ten commandments or Hebrew decalogue. Their contribution to western thinking and civilization is not easily measured as they have molded our values for well over three millennia. Their reach and impact goes further than any consensus by addressing more than behavior or conduct, speaking directly to the human heart.
The ancient mariners didn’t have the luxury of being wrong when it came to sea travel. There were no margins of error or contingencies if someone were to get into trouble. This translated into a great seriousness of purpose. The business of decision making involved the greatest deliberations, as mistakes would almost certainly prove costly indeed, if not fatal.
Might we then expect that the same diligence given to making decisions with the potential to cause damage or ruin to a person’s wealth or personal safety be extended to all decision making? After all, if any decision is worth making, it can only make sense that every decision be at least taken seriously. Unfortunately current trends seem to indicate a marked lack of seriousness. Examples of “Death by a thousand cuts” where people regularly damage their lives through thoughtless small decisions such as habitually accumulating debt, or failing to pay attention to health warnings are not exceptional. Whereas people in the past were largely locked into their difficult life circumstances with few alternatives, contemporary men and women most often find themselves in infinitely better positions. Unlike our predecessors who may never have even dreamt of improving their situation, we have many, many options.
The paradox of having an abundance in both information and resources while failing to use either is indeed a modern conundrum. The old adage “You can lead a horse to water but can’t make him drink” seems about right. Decision making like so much in life can be the result of following either good or bad patterns. When people are insulated from the consequences of a poor decision, the expensive lessons learned from such a loss are disrupted, and wasted. The serious business of living requires that we experience the “Truth” in the joy of success as well as in the sting of defeat. Elevating one while ignoring the other all but guarantees that there will be no real disincentives to failure, and instead, encourages sailors to chart their course into ever greater storms.
